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Market Commentary - Week of 8/5/13

PlanningWorks Presents:

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE

   

“Europe was created by history. America was created by philosophy.”

 

- Margaret Thatcher

 

 

WEEKLY TIP

       

Create a plan for the distribution of your retirement savings. You will use up a significant portion of those assets; have a withdrawal strategy defined.

 

 

WEEKLY RIDDLE

       

I am usually only as wide as a thumb, and I typically travel across the nation for less than a dollar, all while lying flat. What am I?

 

 

Last week’s riddle:

What has two hands but will never clap?

 

Last week’s answer:

A clock.

 

 

Week of August 5, 2013

 

JOBS REPORT SENDS MIXED SIGNALS

Unemployment sank to a 4½-year low of 7.4% last month, even as the pace of hiring declined a bit from spring. The Labor Department’s July report showed non-farm payrolls expanding by 162,000 jobs, with retail, bar and restaurant hires accounting for most of the gain. The ranks of the self-employed grew 2.6% last month. With jobs data like this, some analysts are wondering if the Federal Reserve will reconsider its plan to reduce asset purchases later this year.1

 

HOUSEHOLD SPENDING MEETS EXPECTATIONS

Consumer spending rose 0.5% in June, matching the consensus forecast of economists polled by Reuters; consumer incomes grew 0.3%. The Commerce Department also said the economy grew at a 1.7% annual pace in Q2, up from 1.1% in Q1. July’s Conference Board consumer confidence index came in at 80.3 last week; economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a reading of 81.1.2,3

 

ISM FINDS JUMP IN MANUFACTURING GROWTH

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index hit 55.4% in July, much improved from 50.9% in June. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had anticipated a 52.0 reading.3

     

HOME SALE CONTRACTS DECREASE, BUT PRICES RISE

The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales dipped 0.4% for June after rising 5.8% for May. May’s edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index offered better news, however: a 12.2% overall annualized gain.3

     

MORE RECORDS SET ON WALL STREET

On Friday, the S&P 500 settled at 1,709.67 – its highest close ever – thanks to a 1.07% weekly advance. The Dow closed at 15,658.36 Friday, the NASDAQ at 3,689.59; they respectively gained 0.64% and 2.12% last week.4,5

 

THIS WEEK: ISM’s July non-manufacturing PMI arrives Monday, along with earnings reports from HSBC, Tyson Foods, Jamba, Fidelity and Scripps. Q2 results from Molson Coors, OfficeMax, Starwood Properties, CVS and Fossil appear Tuesday. Wednesday, earnings reports arrive from Novatel, Time Warner, Rosetta Stone, Prudential and Ralph Lauren. Thursday brings the latest initial claims numbers and earnings from Priceline, Sports Chalet, Nvidia, T-Mobile and Orbitz. On Friday, we get the Census Bureau’s June wholesale inventories report and the latest inflation and industrial production data from China.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+19.49

+21.58

+7.65

+7.11

NASDAQ

+22.19

+26.80

+11.93

+11.51

S&P 500

+19.88

+25.25

+7.13

+7.44

REAL YIELD

8/2 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.42%

-0.69%

1.63%

2.40%

 

Sources: thestreet.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 8/2/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

 

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Understanding the Gift Tax Exclusion

Understanding the Gift Tax Exclusion

Most of us will never face taxes related to money or assets we give away.

 

Provided by PlanningWorks

 

“How can I avoid the federal gift tax?” If this question is on your mind, you aren’t alone. The good news is that few taxpayers or estates will ever have to pay it.

 

Misconceptions surround this tax. The IRS sets annual and lifetime gift tax exclusion amounts, and this is where the confusion develops.

 

Here’s what you have to remember: practically speaking, the federal gift tax is a tax on estates. If it wasn’t in place, the rich could simply give away the bulk of their money or property while living to spare their heirs from inheritance taxes.

 

Now that you know the reason the federal government established the gift tax, you can see that the lifetime gift tax exclusion matters more than the annual one.

 

Market Commentary - Week of 7/29/13

PlanningWorks Presents:

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE

   

“Do first things first and second things not at all.”

 

- Peter Drucker

 

 

WEEKLY TIP

       

The recently divorced and those planning to divorce should review their insurance coverage in light of changing needs.

 

 

WEEKLY RIDDLE

       

What has two hands but will never clap?

 

 

Last week’s riddle:

Wide as a grapefruit, deep as a cup, but even a river can't fill it up – and you may have to use it when you cook. What is it?

 

Last week’s answer:

A kitchen strainer.

 

 

Week of July 29, 2013

 

CONSUMER SENTIMENT CONTINUES TO RISE

In 12 months, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment has gained almost 13 points. At 85.1, July’s final edition of the index was up 1.0 points from the final June reading. Two notable details: the percentage of respondents saying their home values had increased hit a six-year peak, and more respondents expected their inflation-adjusted incomes to rise in the coming year than at any time since 2007.1

 

 

TWO DIFFERENT HOME SALES STORIES

Existing home sales declined 1.2% in June with shrinking inventory, but the median sale price was up 13.5% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Even as supply fell short of demand, anticipation of rising mortgage rates no doubt contributed to an 8.3% jump in new home buying in June, as well as the greatest yearly improvement in new home sales since 1992 – a 38.1% annual gain.2

 

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 4.2%

June’s impressive overall advance didn’t tell the whole story. Minus the oft-volatile transportation category, core hard goods orders were flat last month.3

     

DOW ADVANCES FOR A FIFTH STRAIGHT WEEK

While the S&P 500 lost 0.03% across five days to settle at 1,691.65 Friday, the DJIA (+0.10% to 15,558.83) and NASDAQ (+0.71% to 3,613.16) pulled higher. Gold settled at $1,321.70 on the COMEX Friday, oil at $104.70 on the NYMEX.4,5

 

 

THIS WEEK: Earnings from Express Scripts, Hertz, Hartford Financial and Herbalife arrive Monday, and NAR reports June pending home sales. Tuesday brings earnings from Symantec, BP, Chrysler/Fiat, Take Two Interactive, NYSE Euronext, Pfizer, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Merck, UBS, Aetna, Amgen and Aflac; May’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Conference Board’s July consumer confidence poll also appear. The Federal Reserve makes a policy announcement Wednesday; the end of the month also brings the July ADP employment report, the federal government’s first estimate of Q2 GDP, and earnings from MetLife, Comcast, Honda, MasterCard, Hess, Humana, Sodastream, Allstate, CBS, Marriott, Whole Foods, Dreamworks Animation and Yelp. ISM’s July manufacturing index comes out Thursday, plus the July Challenger job-cut report, new initial claims figures, and earnings from P&G, LinkedIn, Time Warner Cable, Clorox, AstraZeneca, Cigna, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Barrick Gold, AIG, Kraft Foods and Leap Wireless. Friday sees the release of the Labor Department’s July jobs report and the Commerce Department’s June consumer spending report, plus quarterly results from Chevron, Toyota and Viacom.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+18.73

+20.72

+7.37

+6.76

NASDAQ

+19.66

+24.88

+11.28

+10.88

S&P 500

+18.61

+24.38

+6.90

+6.94

REAL YIELD

7/26 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.43%

-0.66%

1.79%

2.14%

 


Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 7/26/135,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

 

Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.

 

 

Understanding the Markets

Understanding the Markets

What the acronyms signify & what affects investors.

 

Provided by PlanningWorks

 

Dow. NASDAQ. S&P 500. Fear index. NYSE. Commodity prices. Earnings. Economic indicators. These are the gauges and signposts of investing, but if you stopped most people on the street, you’ll find they have only a hazy understanding of what these terms signify or reference. If you’ve ever been left dizzy by the jargon of the financial world, here is a brief article that may help clarify some of the arcana. Let’s start on Wall Street.

 

The major U.S. indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks how 30 publicly owned companies trade on a market day – the “blue chips”, 30 titans of U.S. and global business chosen by the Wall Street Journal, most not actually industrial. The NASDAQ Composite records the performance of 3,000+ companies on the NASDAQ Stock Market (see below), including many technology firms. The S&P 500 logs the performance of 500 leading publicly traded companies across ten different sectors (business/industry categories), as determined by financial research giant Standard & Poor’s (there was actually a Mr. Poor, hence the name).1,2

Market Commentary - Week of 7/22/13

PlanningWorks Presents:

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE

   

“In the successful organization, no detail is too small to escape close attention.”

 

- Lou Holtz

 

 

WEEKLY TIP

       

Ongoing expenses are common in life – mortgage payments, monthly bills and so forth. View your retirement savings effort in the same way – a monthly expense you must make, one designed to pay off for you.

 

 

WEEKLY RIDDLE

       

Wide as a grapefruit, deep as a cup, but even a river can't fill it up – What is it?

 

 

Last week’s riddle:

All around yet can’t be seen, has no throat but can be heard. What is it?

 

Last week’s answer:

The wind.

 

 

Week of July 22, 2013

 

CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.5% FOR JUNE

Gas prices soared 6.3% last month, and they contributed greatly to the jump in the Consumer Price Index. Core inflation (minus food and energy prices) increased just 0.2% in June. As the headline CPI advanced only once during March-May, does this signal mounting inflation pressures? Maybe not. Looking deeper into the CPI, annualized core inflation actually decreased last month to 1.6%. That is the smallest yearly rise for that indicator in two years.1

 

CAR BUYING DRIVES RETAIL SALES INCREASE

The Commerce Department noted a 0.4% gain in U.S. retail purchases in June, following a 0.5% rise in May. Auto and truck sales were up 1.8% last month (in the last 12 months, the gain has been 11.4%). While vehicle sales improved, consumers bought less in other retail categories. That left the core retail sales advance at 0.2% for June – the weakest number since January.2

 

LEADING INDICATORS FLAT IN JUNE

The Conference Board’s leading economic index showed no advance last month; it was up 0.2% in May and 0.8% in April. The good news is that in the past six months, the LEI has advanced to 95.3, approaching the 100 mark it started at in 2004.3

     

S&P 500 NOTCHES 4-WEEK WINNING STREAK

A 0.71% weekly advance took the broad benchmark to 1,692.09 at the closing bell Friday – it had never settled higher. While the NASDAQ pulled back 0.35% last week to 3,587.61, the Dow wrapped up the week at a fresh high of 15,543.74 after a 0.51% gain across five trading days. The CBOE VIX settled at just 12.56 Friday.4

 

THIS WEEK: NAR presents its June existing home sales report Monday and Texas Instruments, McDonald's, Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly-Clark and Netflix will all report earnings. On Tuesday, earnings from Broadcom, Discover Financial, Apple, Altria, DuPont, Travelers, United Tech, UPS, AT&T and Electronic Arts complement the latest FHFA home price index. Quarterly results from Caterpillar, Visa, Qualcomm, GlaxoSmithKline, Boeing, Eli Lilly, Ford, PepsiCo, Facebook, Akamai and Baidu appear Wednesday, along with Census Bureau data on June new home sales. Thursday brings new initial claims figures, durable goods orders data for June and earnings from Credit Suisse, Colgate-Palmolive, Starbucks, Bristol-Myers, GM, 3M, Sirius XM, Amazon.com, Gilead Sciences and Zynga. On Friday, Tyco presents Q2 results and the final July consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan appears.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+18.62

+20.09

+7.04

+6.92

NASDAQ

+18.81

+20.96

+11.43

+11.00

S&P 500

+18.64

+22.93

+6.84

+7.03

REAL YIELD

7/19 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.29%

-0.62%

1.65%

2.04%

 


Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 7/19/134,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

 

Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.

 

How Impatience Hurts Retirement Saving

How Impatience Hurts Retirement Saving

Keep calm & carry on – it may be good for your portfolio.

 

Provided by PlanningWorks

 

Why do so many retirement savers underperform the market? From 1993-2012, the S&P 500 achieved a (compound) annual return of 8.2%. Across the same period, the average investor in U.S. stock funds got only a 4.3% return. What accounts for the difference?1,2

 

One big factor is impatience. It is expressed in emotional investment decisions. Too many people trade themselves into mediocrity – they react to the headlines of the moment, buy high and sell low. Dalbar, the noted investing research firm, estimates this accounts for 2.0% of the above-mentioned 3.9% difference. (It attributes another 1.3% of the gap to mutual fund operating costs and the remaining 0.6% to portfolio turnover within funds.)2

 

Market Commentary - Week of 7/15/13

 

 

PlanningWorks Presents:

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE

   

“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow.”

 

- Albert Einstein

 

 

WEEKLY TIP

       

If you own a house and have children, you should at least have a will, and preferably an estate plan.

 

 

WEEKLY RIDDLE

       

All around yet can’t be seen, has no throat but can be heard. What is it?

 

 

Last week’s riddle:

This house attracts travelers with its brightness, yet it is often the loneliest home on the coast. What kind of house is this?

 

Last week’s answer:

A lighthouse.

 

 

Week of July 15, 2013

 

WILL THE EASING END SOONER, OR LATER?

Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke lifted stocks by noting that the U.S. economy needed “highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future,” adding that the current 7.6% jobless rate “overstates the health of the labor market.” Remarks like these didn’t exactly suggest the Fed would scale back its asset purchases soon. The June Fed policy meeting minutes showed 11 of 12 Fed officials agreeing to sustain the central bank’s bond-buying campaign, with “about half” of these 11 envisioning QE3 wrapping up late this year. On Friday, Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser emerged from that camp, calling for a “gradual and predictable” end to the program before 2014.1,2,3

 

HOUSEHOLD SENTIMENT DECLINES A BIT

The initial July consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan dipped mildly to 83.9. June’s final reading was 84.1, and economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise to 85.0.4

 

PRODUCER PRICES LEAP 0.8%

Minus food and energy prices, wholesale inflation wasn’t so pronounced in June. The core PPI rose just 0.2% last month. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had projected an overall PPI gain of 0.3%.4,5

     

WALL STREET GETS A BERNANKE BOUNCE

Dovish comments from the Fed chairman helped the S&P 500 to a new record close of 1,680.19 Friday. On the week, the S&P gained 2.96%. The NASDAQ rose 3.47% for the week to settle at 3,600.08 Friday. The Dow gained 2.17% last week and closed Friday at a fresh all-time peak of 15,464.30.4

 

THIS WEEK: Monday offers Q2 results from Citigroup, Census Bureau data on June retail sales and a Q2 GDP reading from China. The June CPI appears Tuesday, plus the latest NAHB housing market index, data on June industrial output and earnings from Goldman Sachs, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab, Yahoo and CSX. Wednesday, Ben Bernanke begins two days of testimony in the Senate, a new Fed Beige Book arrives, and American Express, Bank of America, Bank of NY Mellon, Novartis, Abbott Labs, Mattel, eBay, IBM, Intel and SanDisk report earnings. Thursday offers earnings reports from Capital One, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, United Health, Verizon, Nokia, Google, Microsoft, AMD and Chipotle, plus the latest initial claims figures and the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators. Friday, a G20 summit wraps up and Schlumberger, GE, Vodafone and Honeywell report Q2 results.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+18.01

+22.99

+7.86

+6.96

NASDAQ

+19.23

+25.61

+12.16

+10.76

S&P 500

+17.81

+25.88

+7.11

+6.83

REAL YIELD

7/12 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.55%

-0.58%

1.48%

1.88%

 


Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 7/12/134,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

 

Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.

 

She can bring home the bacon...

She can bring home the bacon and fry it up in a pan… From 1960 through 2011, the percentage of households with children under the age of 18 and mom as the primary or sole breadwinner increased from 11 to 40 percent. According to the Pew Research Center report, ‘Breadwinner Moms’ fall into two distinct groups: married moms who earn more than their husbands (37 percent) and single mothers (63 percent). The earnings gap between the two groups tends to be very large:

“The median total family income of married mothers who earn more than their husbands was nearly $80,000 in 2011, well above the national median of $57,100 for all families with children, and nearly four times the $23,000 median for families led by a single mother.”

 

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Market Commentary - Week of 7/8/13

 

PlanningWorks Presents:

 

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

 

 

 

WEEKLY QUOTE

   

“Don’t dwell on what went wrong. Instead, focus on what to do next. Spend your energies on moving forward toward finding the answer.”

 

- Denis Waitley

 

 

WEEKLY TIP

       

A 30-day list can help you guard against impulse buying; place all nonessential purchases on the list and check again after 30 days. In many cases, the impulse will have passed. 

 

 

WEEKLY RIDDLE

       

This house attracts travelers with its brightness, yet it is often the loneliest home on the coast. What kind of house is this?

 

 

Last week’s riddle:

At a stop sign on a rural road, there are two trucks in front of a truck, two trucks behind a truck, and one truck in the middle of two trucks. How many trucks are there in total?

 

Last week’s answer:

Three.

 

 

Week of July 8, 2013

 

AMERICA ADDS 195,000 JOBS IN JUNE

Payroll growth in June matched that of May, according to the Labor Department (the May gain was revised upward). The private sector hired 202,000 new workers after adding 207,000 in May, offsetting reductions to government payrolls. Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast net job growth of 165,000, so this was encouraging. Will it encourage the Federal Reserve to taper? The Fed’s next policy announcement occurs on July 31, but it will not revise its economic forecasts at that time and no press conference is scheduled afterward. Some economists think the Fed could start tapering QE3 as soon as September.1

 

ISM INDICES BOTH TOP 50

The June purchasing manager indices from the Institute for Supply Management both showed sector expansion. The pace of growth moderated in the service sector, with June’s reading of 52.2 down 1.5 points from May. ISM’s manufacturing index rebounded impressively from a 49.0 reading in May to 50.9 in June.2

 

1-YEAR DELAY FOR EMPLOYER HEALTH CARE MANDATE

The Obama administration is postponing one of the key reforms of the Affordable Care Act – businesses with 50 or more full-time employees now won’t have to provide health insurance to workers until 2015. As around 85% of Americans already have health care coverage, the decision doesn’t impact a majority of individuals or businesses. Most uninsured individuals will still need to buy health coverage in 2014 and businesses with fewer than 50 FTEs won’t be required to sponsor health insurance plans next year. Still, the delay raises new questions about whether national health care reforms can proceed on schedule.3,4

     

ABBREVIATED TRADING WEEK SEES BIG GAINS

Stocks started July well. The S&P 500 rose 1.59% in four days to settle at 1,631.89 Friday. The DJIA rose 1.52% to close at 15,135.84 at week’s end, and the NASDAQ advanced 2.24% to wrap up the week at 3,479.38. Oil settled at $103.22 Friday, with prices soaring 6.7% in a week on worries about political instability in Egypt.5,6

 

THIS WEEK: The Q2 earnings season begins Monday with results from Alcoa. Nothing major is scheduled for Tuesday. Wednesday, the June 19 FOMC minutes are released along with data on May wholesale inventories; Yum! Brands and Family Dollar report earnings. Thursday brings the latest initial jobless claims report plus earnings from Progressive and TXI. Friday, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo report quarterly results, June’s Producer Price Index arrives, and the University of Michigan publishes its initial July consumer sentiment survey.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+15.50

+17.36

+6.82

+6.69

NASDAQ

+15.23

+16.91

+10.99

+10.92

S&P 500

+14.42

+19.33

+5.84

+6.56

REAL YIELD

7/5 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.66%

-0.51%

1.42%

2.09%

 


Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 7/5/137,8,9,10

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

 

Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.
If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address.
We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.

 

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