Call us today!

Phone: (512) 498-PLAN (7526)

Weekly Vantage Point | 11.30.15

Stocks End Week Little Changed

November 30, 2015 – U.S. stocks ended mixed on Friday's shortened trading session, as global markets were rocked by an overnight 5.5% plunge on China's Shanghai Composite Index after Beijing officials placed three major Chinese brokerage firms under investigation. Authorities detained executives, investment managers, and a reporter, and they are probing for securities violations relating to this past summer's 30% market plunge. A jump in U.S. online sales together with an improved euro-area economic confidence survey, which reached a four-year high, helped moderate Wall Street jitters.

According to market research published by Adobe, a new record was set for 2015 Thanksgiving Day online sales, reaching $1.73B, up 25% over last year (57% done by mobile devices). That's a good set up for potentially the best Holiday shopping season sales since before the financial crisis. Gallup polls suggest American adults will spend $830 on Christmas and Hanukkah gift-buying, up from $720 last year, after cratering to $616 in 2008. The National Retail Federation said 103 million people shopped online over the four-day weekend as compared to 102 million visiting "brick-and-mortar" stores. In other key economic data last week, the U.S. manufacturing PMI for November slipped to its slowest pace in over two years, third quarter GDP growth was upwardly revised to 2.1% from 1.5%, personal incomes rose in October by the most in five months and household spending rose less-than-forecast.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, its smallest weekly change since July, the Dow Industrials fell 0.14% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.47%. The small-cap oriented Russell 2000 Index rose a fifth day, its longest rally since March. Five of the ten major sectors advanced during the week, led by Consumer Staples (+1.59%), Energy (+1.33%) and Healthcare (+0.75%). Utilities (-1.48%) and Technology (-0.87%) fell most among decliners. WTI crude oil futures capped a fourth weekly decline, albeit down mildly. Gold fell $20/oz. last week, falling to a fresh six-year low of $1,058, and capped its sixth weekly decline. WTI crude oil dipped just $0.13 on the week, ending at $41.77/bbl. Treasuries rose again last week, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes down 4.2 basis points to 2.221%.

newspaper icon
Week’s Economic Calendar

Monday, November 30: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing;

Tuesday, December 1: PMI Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending;

Wednesday, December 2: ADP Private Payrolls, Productivity & Costs, Beige Book;

Thursday, December 3: Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg (Services Sectors);

Friday, December 4: November Non-farm Payrolls, U.S. Trade Deficit.

world icon
Market Watch
Stocks 1-Wk MTD 3-Month YTD 1-Year
Dow Jones -0.14% 0.76% 6.87% -0.14% -0.16%
S&P 500 0.08% 0.76% 5.75% 3.48% 2.97%
NASDAQ 0.47% 1.65% 6.88% 9.45% 8.36%
Russell 3000 0.37% 1.02% 5.20% 3.06% 2.68%
MSCI EAFE -0.47% -1.27% 1.38% 0.83% -2.82%
MSCI Emerging Markets -2.02% -2.48% 2.04% -11.69% -16.43%
Bonds 1-Week MTD 3-Month YTD 1-Year
Barclays Agg Bond 0.14% -0.32% 0.23% 0.82% 1.08%
Barclays Municipal 0.19% 0.33% 1.49% 2.51% 3.17%
Barclays US Corp High Yield -0.14% -2.38% -2.02% -2.16% -3.75%
Commodities 1-Week MTD 3-Month YTD 1-Year
Bloomberg Commodity 0.40% -7.23% -7.54% -22.24% -30.97%
S&P GSCI Crude Oil -0.45% -10.47% -2.00% -21.70% -43.42%
S&P GSCI Gold -1.87% -7.46% -5.91% -10.80% -11.81%
Source: MorningStar
Chart of the Week: Global GDP Growth May See Improvement
View larger image »

Source: J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan's forecast of 4Q global GDP growth declined two-tenths this week, to a lackluster 2.2% seasonally-adjusted rate. Just two weeks ago, their estimate stood at 2.7%, and it was reduced due a 13.4%-point downward revision to India's 4Q GDP growth outlook. (Unfortunately, the statistics office's new methodology has made tracking India's quarterly GDP difficult.) In contrast to the 4Q global GDP growth forecast, J.P. Morgan continues to increase the 3Q number. This week, the 3Q global GDP growth estimate is 2.8%, up from only 2.4% at the start of October. This increase is also largely due to India's revisions and there are still about 10 countries that have yet to finalize their 3Q GDP outcomes.

In Figure 1, J.P. Morgan's "Nowcasting" projections are for global GDP to advance 2.5% on an annualized basis this quarter, the same reading as in the past three weeks. However, with the J.P. Morgan forecast moving down (Table 1), the Nowcaster is signaling upside risk for the current quarter. Moreover, the monthly Nowcast projections signal a stronger pace for global GDP growth at 2.7% for each month within this quarter-held back only by the weak trajectory from the prior quarter.

Copyright © 2015 Cetera Financial Group, Inc., RCS Capital Corporation’s (NYSE:RCAP) retail investment advice platform.
All rights reserved.
200 N. Sepulveda Blvd, Ste 1200, El Segundo, CA 90245
Privacy Policy - Contact Us

This report is created by Tower Square Investment Management LLC

About Tower Square Investment Management

Tower Square Investment Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group®. It provides investment research, portfolio and model management, and investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually-registered broker-dealers and registered investment advisers.

About Cetera Financial Group

Cetera Financial Group® is the retail investment advice platform of RCS Capital Corporation (NYSE: RCAP) that delivers the benefits of scale to its family of independent broker-dealer firms and registered investment advisers while providing a framework that nurtures relationships, unique cultures and unbiased objectivity. As the second largest independent financial advisor network in the nation by number of advisors and a leading provider of investment programs to financial institutions, Cetera Financial Group provides award-winning wealth management and advisory platforms, comprehensive broker-dealer and registered investment adviser services, and innovative technology to its family of broker-dealer firms nationwide.

Through those firms, Cetera Financial Group offers the stability of a large, established broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, while serving independent and institutions-based financial advisors in a way that is customized to their individual needs. Cetera Financial Group is committed to helping advisors grow their businesses and strengthen their relationships with their investor clients. All of the Cetera Financial Group broker-dealer firms are members of FINRA/SIPC. For more information, visit


The material contained in this document was authored by and is the property of Tower Square Investment Management LLC. Tower Square Investment Management provides investment management and advisory services to a number of programs sponsored by affiliated and non-affiliated registered investment advisers. Your registered representative or investment adviser representative is not registered with Tower Square Investment Management and did not take part in the creation of this material. He or she may not be able to offer Tower Square Investment Management portfolio management services.

Nothing in this presentation should be construed as offering or disseminating specific investment, tax, or legal advice to any individual without the benefit of direct and specific consultation with an investment adviser representative authorized to offer Tower Square Investment Management services. Information contained herein shall not constitute an offer or a solicitation of any services. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

For more information about Tower Square Investment Management strategies and available advisory programs, please reference the Tower Square Investment Management LLC Form ADV disclosure brochure and the disclosure brochure for the registered investment adviser your adviser is registered with. Please consult with your adviser for his or her specific firm registrations and programs available.

No independent analysis has been performed and the material should not be construed as investment advice. Investment decisions should not be based on this material since the information contained here is a singular update, and prudent investment decisions require the analysis of a much broader collection of facts and context.

All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The opinions expressed are as of the date published and may change without notice. Any forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision.

The Barclays U.S. Aggregate bond Index is an unmanaged index composed of Barclays Credit government bond index, mortgage backed securities index, and asset backed securities index and is generally representative of the US Bond market.

The Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index measures the market of USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt.

The Barclays U.S. Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged, market-value-weighted index of investment-grade municipal bonds with maturities of one year or more.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that allows investors to track commodity futures through a single, simple measure. It is composed of futures contracts on physical commodities and is designed to minimize concentration in any one commodity or sector. It currently includes 19 commodity futures in five groups. No one commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index, and no group can represent more than 33% of the index (as of the annual reweightings of the components).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility.

CRB Index: A pricing index that measures changes in the price of 22 commodities that are believed to be among the first to react to changes in economic conditions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.

The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada.

MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold future.

The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI and provides investors with a publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

The Shanghai Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Life and Business Strategies...Start the Journey

CONTACT US: 2700 Via Fortuna Suite 100 • Austin, TX 78746 • (512) 498-7526
Fax (512) 684-8519 •

Investment Advisory services offered through, Waterloo Capital, L.P. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through Calton & Associates, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC OSJ 2701 N. Rocky Point Dr., Suite 1000, Tampa, FL 33607 (813) 605-0918 Waterloo Capital, L.P., PlanningWorks, Inc. and Calton & Associates, Inc. are separate entities.

A Registered Representative may only transact business in states where they are registered, or exempt from registration. Currently we have Representatives registered in CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, MN, MO, NE, NM, OH, PA, SC, and TX. If your resident state is not listed, please contact us at Under normal circumstances, securities licensing procedures for additional states may take 24-72 hours. We will not effect or attempt to effect securities transactions, or provide personalized investment advice to, or communicate directly with residents in a state in which a Representative is not registered.


Website Design For Financial Services Professionals | Copyright 2020 All rights reserved